Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
